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BBC weather issues devastating update over August heatwave

Forecasters at BBC weather have issued a big blow to anyone hoping for an August heatwave – warning cooler and wetter weather is on its way.

The country has been in the grip of sweltering temperatures and dazzling sunshine with two hottest days recorded in the UK this month.

But now thunderstorms have replaced the sunshine and according to the BBC’s long range weather forecast, it looks set to stay that way for the next month.

Read more:Here’s where thunderstorms are expected to strike as UK heatwave to end

They said there was only a “slight risk of another heatwave” after the middle of next month, but added they “expect low pressure to be the main weather driver until mid-August, and potentially for the entire month”.

It is also expected to be “cooler than normal for August” with wetter and windier weather. Gulp.

The monthly forecast says: “Turning unsettled and cooler for much of August. After a week-long heat wave in the UK, temperatures are set to moderate as low pressure moves in this weekend.

“This area of lower pressure will become trapped over the UK and linger here for several weeks, keeping things unsettled, changeable, and a bit cooler than normal for August.

“After the middle of the month, there is a growing chance of higher pressure developing nearby or overhead, bringing sunnier and warmer weather along with a slight risk of another heat wave.

“However, we expect low pressure to be the main weather driver until mid-August, and potentially for the entire month.”

Saturday, July 24 to Sunday, August 1

An unsettled week ahead with cool, wet weather.

The BBC weather forecast says: “After a very hot and dry week across the country, this week will see the pattern shift as high pressure moves away to Russia.

“Low pressure will move in to replace it, bringing a much wetter pattern to the UK. For the weekend rain and thunderstorms will be confined to southern areas, but as we head through next week everyone will likely see rainfall.

“Temperatures will moderate to near normal before dipping a bit below normal from midweek. This type of pattern has a lot of variability day-to-day, but unsettled and cool weather is expected with high confidence.”

Monday, August 2 to Sunday, August 8

Staying unsettled and changeable. Feeling cooler.

The BBC weather forecast says: “Once the low pressure is in place over northern Europe, it may stick around through at least the first half of August as high pressure builds in the Atlantic and Central Russia.

“These two highs will tend to dominate the large-scale weather systems, meaning low pressure near us will become trapped in place. What this means for the UK is that we can expect a lot of cooler, wetter, and at times windier weather than what we typically see in the late summertime. The day-to-day weather will also be more changeable, with perhaps some dry, sunny breaks here and there.

“There doesn’t look to be any large changes in the weather pattern across the North Atlantic and Europe at least for the next few weeks. We will continue to see some cooler, unsettled weather into mid-August.

“As weather fronts move through from the west or northwest, we may get a brief ridge of high pressure, but this shouldn’t last for more than a day. This is thanks to the sharper temperature contrast we anticipate will develop over Europe, with cooler air in the northwest and warmth in the southeast. These temperature contrasts help strengthen the jet stream, a ribbon of fast-moving air in the upper atmosphere. This in turn drives surface weather systems and makes them pass through us quicker.

“There is a slight chance these ridges are a little more frequent, especially later in the week, and we see some more consistently dry, sunny weather. This would likely still be cooler than normal, as northerly winds will bring in air from near Iceland, but it would be much drier. We expect perhaps a 20% chance of this alternative scenario.”

Monday, August 9 to Sunday, August 22

Changeable but potentially drier later in August.

The BBC weather forecast says: “The big question heading into the longer-range outlook is just how long with this low pressure pattern be stuck over the UK? The answer is likely at least through mid-August, with some compelling signals that we could see it for the rest of the month! However, high pressure is likely to linger nearby and could easily shift in from the southwest.

“Through mid-August we think the most likely outlook is for continued low pressure in northern Europe. However, this may become centred to our east instead of overhead, leading to some potentially less wet conditions in western areas. This is still a cooler pattern through with more frequent north-west winds. We will likely still see Atlantic weather fronts dive in from the northwest, so it would be completely dry anywhere. This would also allow for occasional ridges of high pressure between fronts to bring a better chance of some dry, sunny breaks.

“Late in August the forecast become a little more tricky with a growing potential for high pressure to be more influential. The latest computer model guidance favours a continuation of low pressure over the UK through the end of August, but this is a bit at odds with some of the signals we’re seeing from the northern hemispheric weather patterns. To complicate things further, the UK is sat on the boundary between expected low pressure and high pressure.

W”e expect that low pressure will be shifting more into Scandinavia later in August which should gradually allow for high pressure to dry things out and bring some warmer, sunny days for late August. This should be a slow process, but for the second half of the month we are forecasting a greater likelihood of some drier, sunnier weather.”



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