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BBC weather issues crushing update over August heatwave

BBC weather forecasters have issued a crushing update to those hoping for a late August heatwave.

The service had been hopeful that a heatwave could return to the UK for the last week of meteorological summer.

But while the latest guidance from models suggests next week will see more “summerlike” weather, it also warns temperatures will be “just above average”.

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The BBC weather long range weather forecast says that “more recent model guidance has backed off from the chance of a heat wave to develop across the UK”.

It adds: “This is down to a subtle but important difference in the position of the area of high pressure. It appears most likely to be located a little to the north or north-west of the UK, with winds from the east or north-east.

“This is not often a direction very warm air moves in from, but some parts could still see temperatures a little above average, especially Scotland and Northern Ireland, which will be nearer to the high pressure centre.”

However, September could now bring spells of ” summerlike” weather, according to forecasters at the BBC, but it is all dependant on hurricane activity.

The BBC says if hurricane activity stays low, then high pressure could remain “strong and entrenched overhead, keeping things warmer and drier than normal and prolonging the summerlike weather” in September.

Here’s the full forecast from the service:

Monday, August 23 to Sunday, August 29

The BBC’s long range weather forecast says: “For the final full week of meteorological summer, once the weekend low moves away, we expect high pressure to build across the UK.

“This will keep the weather more settled and generally more summerlike. Winds will tend to be light with Atlantic weather fronts deflected to the west and towards Iceland instead of moving into the UK.

“The airmass across the UK will tend to slowly warm through the week, with temperatures tending to be just above average in places.

“More recent model guidance has backed off from the chance of a heat wave to develop across the UK. This is down to a subtle but important difference in the position of the area of high pressure. It appears most likely to be located a little to the north or north-west of the UK, with winds from the east or north-east. This is not often a direction very warm air moves in from, but some parts could still see temperatures a little above average, especially Scotland and Northern Ireland, which will be nearer to the high pressure centre.

“This high pressure may remain the dominant feature for northern Europe into early September, keeping things dry and settled for the UK, but we do expect it to shift east eventually. There is a chance, perhaps around 30%, that the eastward shift is earlier, allowing low pressure to arrive by the end of the week. This could bring some showery rain and slightly cooler Atlantic air with it, but confidence is low at the moment and there are more signals pointing towards high pressure remaining in charge.”

Monday, August 30 to Sunday, September 12

The BBC weather long range forecast says: “High pressure next week to the north of Europe is fairly likely, but its exact position is causing some forecast issues for the UK weather. The big question heading into autumn is: How long will the settled weather last?

“Unfortunately, our long-range computer models are still really struggling with the timing of this, which is not unusual for this time of year. Instead, we are relying on our historical analogues for guidance. These are where we examine previous years with similar large-scale weather patterns around the globe. This year, there are some strong signals for low pressure to return to the British Isles from the north-west, bringing a cooler, wetter, and windier outlook.

“However, high pressure looks like it might cling on for the start of the month as it gradually declines in northern Europe and shifts eastwards. This will make for a changeable week of weather as Atlantic fronts push ever further across the country and bring some rain and cloudy skies. Eventually though, high pressure will diminish, building instead in the Atlantic and allowing fronts to sweep through as low pressure becomes dominant across Northwest Europe.

“One complicating factor, and a big reason for the computer model issues at the moment, is that the Atlantic hurricane season is starting to pick up again after a lull. We are entering the peak in activity, and conditions are turning more favourable for storms to develop in the tropics. Even though these stay thousands of miles away, they can still disrupt the pattern for us.

“Therefore, confidence for September comes with a rather healthy caveat depending on hurricane activity. This means the risk scenario is that high pressure remains strong and entrenched overhead, keeping things warmer and drier than normal and prolonging the summerlike weather.”



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