I hope you’re having a fantastic week so far.
So I’m currently still in my EUR/GBP trade (for the moment at least). The momentum never really kicked in to the upside as I’d hoped and then price retraced very aggressively in true EUR/GBP style. On the balance of probability I thought at this point that I’d probably be tagged out for a loss simply because of the momentum that had come in to the downside. However I also saw what had preceded this move as a completed three touch pattern and I know from my testing how after a completed three touch pattern price will sometimes scoop back down to retest the third touch and then the momentum will kick in in our forecasted direction and that’s exactly what happened and one of the reasons I thought that this might happen is because of what happened the last time a three touch structure broke below a daily which I’ve replicated for you using the Bars Pattern tool. Granted it doesn’t look identical to what’s happened this time around because one piece of price action never looks identical to another, but hopefully this shows you how it’s possible for us to trade raw price action without us paying any attention to the news and that’s because patterns repeat themselves because human beings repeat themselves.
So that’s me marginally in profit on this trade with my stop loss now at break even. I may well be tagged out for break even soon, but EUR/GBP is notorious for pulling back violently before it continues in the direction that it was headed so let’s see what happens. But this is why we as traders always need to remain neutral and open-minded so that our bias doesn’t cloud our judgment.
My forecast for today I’ve posted below.
Have a great day!
• If price pushes up to and ideally just above the upper of our most recent piece of structure and the last part of the move is corrective, then I’ll be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it.
• If price only pushes up to and ideally just above our upper rayline and the last part of the move is corrective, then I’ll once again be looking to get short with a risk entry either after a phase line break, or just below a one hour or a fifteen minute rejection from it but I’ll be hiding my stop loss above our upper ascending for extra protection.
• If price pushes up impulsively to and ideally just above our upper rayline, then I’ll be waiting for a convincing impulse back down followed by a tight flag and then I’ll be looking to get short either a reduced risk entry on the break of the flag or a risk entry within it.
• If my entry requirements are not met then I will simply wait until another setup which meets my plan materialises.
• If there’s any ambiguity then I will not place a trade on this pair.