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UPDATE 1: Battle planning on Solana looking at Ethereum for FTX:SOLUSD by This_Guhy

TLDR: I waited over 4 months for the trade to get to the point I would put a short on. The next move is to short to the buybox. See the linked idea for more context

Introduction

I have spent a lot of time looking at blow off tops and parabolic moves over the last 450 ideas and 5 years with the goal of being able to benefit from these natual phenomenon of mass psychology. One thing I greatly desire for my trades now is what I call “chart clarity” where the better a asset looks to be following a pattern I know the more I want to trade it.

I plan on following this fractal for the next couple of year so long as each step gets confirmed. I hope to make a lot of money doing this and hopefully others can benefit.

Analysis and battle plan

ETH was prety volatile during the last bull run and bear market but once we zoom back it was just a simple ABC correction with a final consolidation at the Fib Extension 1 level before a final quick move to target. In that case the C wave was a 1.618 extension of the A wave.

As I chart it, Solana’s C wave will be a 2x extension of the A wave. Ethereum had a symmetrical triangle that it broke out of when it was done consolidating at the 1 line but Solana has an even more bearish continuation pattern, a bearish rising wedge on a flag pole.

Price action can be inconsistent depending on the exchanges being looked at but the target is the blue buy box. If price wicks below that into the area of the muave-ish circle then that would be too low for me and would make me think the pattern could be off going forward.

The chart below shows some smaller time frame structure. There is a head and shoulders formation that should facilitate price breaking down out of the wedge in dramatic fashion.

A look at SolBTC shows a black head and shoulders making up the top of a right shoulder in blue heand and shoulders. That SOLBTC sell pressure should create a lot of sell pressure on SOLUSDT.

Further battle planning
If price consolidates in the buy box as predicted the next big move I would want to play would be a long with price action going up to the base of the bull trap, which is the end of corrective wave A and the beginning of wave V. As I study this fractal on smaller altcoins I have seen some rallies move quite a way into wave B but others have died within pennies of the beginning of Wave B. I shan’t be greedy.

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