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S&P:What do we say to the God of the Death Cross. for CME_MINI:ES1! by iowjack

507 days since ES mini crossed over the death cross.

My idea is that the fed QE and stimulus bill passed March 27 elevated the market out of its previous channel formed in the 2008 financial crisis into a much steeper “By The Dip Channel”.

The market will need to eventually cross over the 50/200 day death cross. Last encountered March 27 (507d)

Big MOC ES prints started hitting March 27th 2020 shortly after the MOC meeting that day.

@spotgamma tweeted I’ve been told by the futures guys that the 3:50 MOC headline brought a nano-second later ES print that was “f’ing huge”.
https://twitter.com/spotgamma/status/124…

The short term outlook depends on what’s said at Jackson Hole.

ES may continue a slow burn up into higher resistance levels and a hawkish Jackson Hole meeting could mean send it down 4-7% correction territory.

Gary Wagner from this video suggests a more hawkish outlook to start tapering in 2022.

The purple line in the channel represents stimulus, low interest rates, asset purchases and an opposing decline in stimulus, asset purchases, rising interest rates moratorium ending.

The opposing line represents a hawkish tapering decision in 2022 to 2023 with the goal of returning the market to its pre pandemic channel in the weekly.

The don’t think we’ll completely return to the previous channel from 2008 but rather some combination of the Speculation Market and a return to Fundamentals.

We will cross over the death cross, but I believe Jay Powell will let the market correct itself gradually rather than some black swan event everyone seems to call for (example: Michael Burry).



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