The market will need to eventually cross over the 50/200 day death cross. Last encountered March 27 (507d)
Big MOC ES prints started hitting March 27th 2020 shortly after the MOC meeting that day.
@spotgamma tweeted I’ve been told by the guys that the 3:50 MOC headline brought a nano-second later ES print that was “f’ing huge”.
The short term outlook depends on what’s said at Jackson Hole.
ES may continue a slow burn up into higher resistance levels and a hawkish Jackson Hole meeting could mean send it down 4-7% correction territory.
Gary Wagner from this video suggests a more hawkish outlook to start tapering in 2022.
The purple line in the channel represents stimulus, low interest rates, asset purchases and an opposing decline in stimulus, asset purchases, rising interest rates moratorium ending.
The opposing line represents a hawkish tapering decision in 2022 to 2023 with the goal of returning the market to its pre pandemic channel in the weekly.
The don’t think we’ll completely return to the previous channel from 2008 but rather some combination of the Speculation Market and a return to Fundamentals.
We will cross over the death cross, but I believe Jay Powell will let the market correct itself gradually rather than some black swan event everyone seems to call for (example: Michael Burry).