Last week in addition to my weekend look analysis I posted two charts offering both a and thesis. By the end of the week my scenario was negated as price took out 15001 level and the downward trendline. Going into this week I will be watching for follow through. The challenge is that price has pushed into another area of resistance with both the 618 fib and the 55 forming the wall. The good news is that if price clears these levels there is a good chance we revisit the ATH . The bad news is that if price stalls out here it could easily roll over and head back down or trade sideways. My preferred setup is a modest pull back into the 15000 zone then a push back up through the moving average and fib resistance. That would would setup up for a nice move higher going into the the heart of season and the end of Oct.
I have broken down both the bull and the bear case in my chart notes. As always price action rules the day. Generally I will remain above the 14844 level (bottom of the neutral zone). Below 14844 I will start to feel again. Note the dotted black lines on the chart identify levels of support below and targets above.
I will update this chart throughout the week as things play out. Happy trading.
**** The perspective of my analysis that of a long biased trader. This means I am looking for uptrend confirmation before taking long trades. If the market is correction, at resistance or in a down trend I build cash and wait. I rarely short. ****