Multi-Month Bearish cycle ahead / just matter of time for FX:XAUUSD by goldenBear88

Gold’s general commentary: The Hourly 1 chart’s Channel Up got rejected on it’s Higher Low trendline (not counting the abnormal wick of August #10) on a wide fakeout, and is now in the process of pricing it’s real Higher Low and Lower Low sequence. The sequence was quite straighforward. The Price-action made a valid breakout, broken the Resistance, and as Buying was strongly limited, recovery was altered, as Gold was Sold back from the Top Intra-day and currently is Trading on fair Technical price. My plan is to wait for the #1,750.80 configuration break, and if broken, pursue #1,727.80 configuration within the current (will then be) session both Technically and Fundamentally equipped for an Short-term downtrend. Bond Yields broken the Weekly chart (#1W) Resistance and are above the Highest point in #3 Weeks, and only factor which is stalling the uptrend are market speculators manually preventing the multi-Month Bearish cycle ahead. Main evidence is DX breaking Double Top throughout yesterday’s late U.S. session, and Gold has ignored it and had no reaction, and as discussed, break of #1,745.80 – #1,750.80 belt will initiate serious Selling sequence on Gold . Be alerted that the markets (especially the DX and Bond Yields) are on High speculation mode ahead of the Fundamental events as Gold could Trade on strong Volatility index. I am expecting #1,750.80 Support break within #1 session.

Technical analysis: #1,750.80 barrier is so far holding and is the level I am focusing at since #14 sessions. Fed talks quickly down-played the quick recovery hopes which Gold Investors had, especially since March, and the last week’s sharp Yields Sell-off still didn’t benefited Gold as a safe-haven. I am on critical cross-roads, as I have been mentioning the past few sessions, Gold has regained its negative correlation with DX and Usd-Jpy , while Yield is less important, at least for this week (Yields are on parabolic uptrend, and no reaction on Gold which erases itself from main correlation assets list). Adding to that the fact that DX is on a gradual uptrend since late September, quickly understand why Gold is still on Lower levels even though the Hourly 4 chart is on Higher Low’s / Lower High’s, but on the other hand, there are no good news for Gold’s Buyers. Main evidence is that Gold Trades within Neutral Rectangle zone before pricing the major move (ignoring #4 out of #4 Resistance breaks on DX lately). On October #29, #2020 – Support was broken and Price-action bounced back again, on the aftermath, (November #8) Price-action broken the Higher High Resistance extension strongly #(1,960.80 then) and bounced back on #1,855.080, which resembles that Gold always Trades on Inflated prices ahead of serious takedown.

My position: I closed my yesterday’s session Selling order on breakeven, and will only engage again if #1,750.80 breaks (and DX above the Resistance zone ). Market speculators are preventing the further downtrend ( Gold is currently Trading on inflated prices, as Investors will understand why once Gold dips so easily towards #1,700.80 psychological barrier). #1,722.80 is well guarded as it is the final Medium-term Support zone , and break of can extend the Selling sequence and touch #52-Week Low on Gold . I am patiently waiting for #1,750.80 break, where I will pursue #1,722.80 with my Selling order.

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