Gold’s recovery showing signs of exhaustion / #1,778.80 next for FX:XAUUSD by goldenBear88

Gold’s general commentary: Constant DX weakness is postponing my Selling model, and the fact that Gold still didn’t peaked with a Higher High, leads me to believe that it is being used as a hedge instrument against the Inflation (but current state will not last for long). I will stick to my Selling model in order to utilize potential aggressive Bearish Gap fill, on the contrary Price-action ignored mini uptrend on DX and risen aswell along with it, indicating elemental Volatility movement, ignoring aswell Technical Overbought levels Gold is currently Trading on. However, the Hourly 4 chart’s Technicals suggest that if #1,778.80 breaks, (the Hourly 1 chart’s Ascending Channel is invalidated) and Gold should should test the #1,761.80 in extension. It is highly important to note, statistically / when Gold Trades on such configuration (ignoring the correlating instruments) Volume for #7 – #17 sessions, aggressive decline occurs on the aftermath. (September #14 – #21, October #1 – #6, October #8 – #13 #2020. fractal on Hourly 4 chart), as I don’t see reason why Gold shouldn’t repeat it’s cycle. When the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel’s rejection point turns into strong Resistance (rejecting any recovery attempt since late September), Gold tends to pull back roughly #50 points (#1,916.80 – #1,903.80, as it was the case throughout August #20 – #27, #2020 sequence). This Price action is beyond doubt not related to the essential Technical rules, so I’ll approach with extreme care, as any rules do not apply on such sessions. As discussed, unless the Hourly 4 chart’s Resistance breaks at #1,800.80, I can’t be expecting a sustainable rebound. Personally, I believe these are the right circumstances for Gold to test the Daily chart #1,761.80 again, once the DX stabilizes. #1,778.80 is my first Selling point.

Technical analysis: Obvious Bullish developments as Gold eventually tested (or better yet currently testing) the #1,796.80 Resistance zone that I have been referring to since last Trading week, which is the symmetrical level from the September #24 High (Lower High of last Year’s downtrend). Gold was showing High durability throughout U.S. session and almost touched #1,792.80 second strong Resistance (#1,792.80 – #1,800.80 Resistance cluster and Seller’s final line of defense), as an result of yet another Selling leg on DX . This is a strong Short-term Resistance level to consider as I expect the Hourly 4 chart to act accordingly and initiate a steady downtrend after today’s possible rejection and non-significant rise as an answer for DX’s failed optimism and recovery hopes. Notice also that this is where (Lower High’s), Gold found Support during the May / June #2019 breakout, and in a few sessions Price-action made a new Bearish leg. I spotted High chances of repeating that sequence. Hourly 4 chart is already stabilizing while the Daily chart is close to complete Neutrality indicating that Profit on the recent Top has been taken (Long-term Investors) and configuration is pointing again that fair Technical Selling sequence could be on the cards. If E.U. delivers what I am waiting for, I will be ready with my Selling orders to pursue #1,761.80 Selling variance. I expect a rather ranged session today, unless Wall Street brings turbulence as Price-actions is found between #2 Highly important benchmarks. I remain Bearish on Short and Medium-term with DX numbers as my main point of interest. I am still confident in Selling outlook but without Medium-term opening and Price-action still under lot’s of questions (huge question mark), I won’t rush to engage and endanger my capital with bigger Volumed position. Last #2 out of #2 Resistance breaks / recovery attempts were so far unsuccessful, as my estimations are pointing that #1,801.80 – #1,805.80 is maximum out of current Bullish fractal .

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