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Gold in Neutral Rectangle / Bearish on Medium-term for FX:XAUUSD by goldenBear88

Gold’s general commentary: Gold was among the losers of the Fed’s decision. Valuable ground’s given and #1,900.80 looks unreachable for at least not before Q4 and further Fed decisions. Investors clearly show their interest to try riskier assets like equities and as long as Yields and DX continue to hit historic Intra-day High’s, Gold will keep losing ground. On Daily chart , Gold is clearly on critical Support level as Yearly and Quarterly Investors will pressure on the #1,767.80 based on current Fundamental environment where Investors are unlikely to use Gold as an sole hedge against Inflation (currently on ATH chart). Next Weekly chart Support is #1,767.80.80, and if broken along with the #1,747.80 barrier guarding the downtrend, next Technical stop should be near #1,678.80.

Fundamental analysis: Excellent Selling opportunity once again utilized as Gold dipped almost #127 points, which was my projection from last week. Gold entered stabilization zone and rallied as the Fed introduced new liquidity injection facilities with Wednesday’s session announcement. Gold’s recent losses are similar to what happened in #2008 Year. All metals rebounded when the Federal Reserve announced quantitative easing in November #2008. By my calculations, now is the perfect timing to start planing to Sell Gold Long-term, the safe-haven asset, amongst market panic over the impact of the growing E.U. and U.S. monetary Stimulus (and #1.8 Trillion Biden’s intention of spending). Gold , which is considered the ultimate safe-haven soared last Year as Investors relocated all their capital into Gold , but this Year I have different scenario. Gold’s decline which I expected could be one of the biggest throughout history, and could be similar to what happened in #2008, when Gold also failed to act as a sole safe-haven asset and dipped about #23% due to DX strength and a run into cash. The turning point for Gold in #2008 came when the Federal Reserve announced quantitative easing, at which point Gold began to soar (all the way to #2011. Year), which was similar to the current scenario, just on the other side. Federal Reserve announced unprecedented actions to boost the economy amid the economy crisis, including unlimited Bond Yields Buying and multiple facilities to aid companies and conglomerates. I expect Gold to continue the historic decline and reach #1,678.80 by middle of September.

Short-term: Since the #1,822.80 Resistance rejected the Price-action, Gold waved a Bearish breakout call towards the Daily chart’s #1,782.80 extension, as I have explained throughout my commentary. That Gold is not solely used as hedge instrument against Inflation , current Selling sequence may pull the Price-action Lower as is an clear indication that the Medium-term Bearish trend is back. The Support is at #1,767.80, and that is the Lowest I can see it for current week (under the current circumstances, geopolitics, DX , Bond Yields) and can represent Short-term stabilization zone. Assuming that Daily chart’s Channel Up is invalidated, Price-action can test my #1,767.80 extension within #6 sessions since I don’t expect much from today’s session.



My position:
As Gold engaged one of the biggest proportion declines since February – March #2020, it was Natural to expect Short-term recovery. If #1,799.80 breaks, Gold can spike up towards #1,816.80, while if #1,799.80 rejects the Price-action, Gold will stay within Neutral Rectangle as I don’t expect much from today’s session. As I am more than satisfied with my #13 Profits run, I will call it for the session, take an early weekend break and continue operating with my Selling orders from Monday’s session.

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