A Simple Analysis of Bitcoin’s Future for BITSTAMP:BTCUSD by notadamcopp

Simple analysis using basic TA. Occam’s razor – the simplest solution is often the correct one.

I used a Fibonacci retracement to show price levels dating back to the peak of 2017 bull run. These levels correspond well with long-term support/resistance levels, so I believe there to be a significant pattern.

Recently BTC has formed a new downward channel , of which price action has bounced quite nicely within since ATH .

Currently we are at a cross between the upper level of the downward channel and the huge 50k resistance level . I believe it is unlikely for BTC to break through this resistance as you can see the volume is trailing and the price action is losing steam. You can see a similar movement happen during the run-up to ATH (illustrated by the blue curved lines). However, if BTC does break above 50k consistently, we could be seeing a rally back to 65k .

My buy zone is based off of the intersection of the bottom level of the downward channel , the long term “floor curve” of BTC (the bottom blue curved line), and the 20k significant resistance formed from the 2017 bull run and the beginning of the 2020 bull run. This intersection defines a buy zone of ~20k, anywhere from December ’21 to April ’22. I do not believe the price will go much lower than 20k at this time.

To reiterate, my buy position is ~$20-25k price point over a ~5 month period. Buying and holding until $200k+ in 2024 and beyond. Happy Trading,

– Adam

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